2025 Year in Review
Published January 2026The macro environment
2025 was the most volatile year for global markets since 2022. The dominant theme was tariff policy: announcements, retaliations, partial reversals, and re-implementations whipsawed equities and commodities throughout the year. Equity markets adapted by pricing in tariff-driven cost increases on the demand side and supply-chain reorganisation on the production side. Multiple sectors saw permanent re-rating; others rallied as policy details emerged.
The Federal Reserve cut rates during the year while keeping forward guidance deliberately ambiguous — producing a more fragile term structure than the headline cut count would suggest. Treasuries rallied, then sold off, then rallied again as policy uncertainty oscillated. The dollar finished the year weaker against most major currencies, supporting both gold (which made repeated all-time highs) and dollar-funded carry trades into emerging markets.
The S&P 500 finished the year higher but the path included multiple drawdowns exceeding 5%. Realised volatility was elevated relative to 2023-2024. The narrow Magnificent-Seven leadership of 2023 broadened to a wider set of large-cap technology and AI-exposed names, with mid-cap participation also recovering. Equity dispersion was unusually high, providing stock-pickers with one of the best years for relative performance since 2009.
Hedge fund industry — the best year since 2009
Hedge funds posted their strongest collective year in 16 years. The industry generated over $540 billion in investor gains, surpassing every full-year total since 2009. Performance dispersion was extreme — top decile managers significantly outperformed the median — making 2025 a year where strategy selection and manager selection mattered more than usual.
Top fund-level returns:
- Discovery Capital Management (Rob Citrone): 35%+ continuation of the macro thesis. Citrone made the 2025 Top 5.
- Rokos Capital (Chris Rokos): ~21% net on $22B+ AUM. Macro/rates positioning into Fed cuts.
- Pershing Square (Bill Ackman): Solid year continuing the activist book.
- TCI Fund Management (Chris Hohn): Strong year; activist campaigns continued to compound.
- Citadel: Continued strong performance across multi-strategy book; not 2022-magnitude but well above industry median.
The WCTC 2025 field
The 2025 World Cup Trading Championships produced the deepest competition field in recent memory. Multiple division winners posted audited returns above 100%. The Futures Division saw four traders finish above 200%, with Paul Skarp's 256% taking the title.
Notable WCTC 2025 results:
- Paul Skarp — 256% — WCTC Annual Futures Division Champion. Trading World Champion 2025.
- Tirutrade AG — 324.7% — remarkable single-year audited futures return. Did not win the editorial selection because the multi-year track record is shorter than Skarp's.
- Brent Carlile — continued strong year after winning 2024 WCTC Futures with 532%.
- Thorsten Helbig — WCTC Annual Forex Division Champion. 52%+ audited return. Top 5 of the editorial selection.
- Darren O'Neill — 4th place in Annual Forex (168%), 5th in Q3 Forex (65.9%), 1st in October Monthly Forex (59.35%). Multi-divisional placement validating the 2023 Trading World Champion selection.
- Ivan Scherman — continued top-tier futures performance after his 2023 491% division win.
The 2025 Trading World Champion selection
Paul Skarp, with a 256% audited return in the WCTC Annual Futures Division. The selection was unanimous in the first deliberation session.
Three reasons the case was clear:
- Magnitude. 256% audited futures return is exceptional in any year and was the highest in the 2025 WCTC field by a meaningful margin until Tirutrade's 324.7% surfaced. Skarp's drawdown trajectory through the year (peak above 330%, recovery to 256%) was within the expected range for the format.
- Audit standard. The WCTC's broker-tracked verification is among the strongest individual-trader audits in the trading world. Skarp's number is verifiable independently at worldcupchampionships.com.
- Repeat. Skarp's 2015 win at the same standard, ten years apart, in a different market regime, against a different field of competitors, makes him a two-time Trading World Champion. Repeat winners are rare (3 of 14 selections; see two-time-champions analysis) and Skarp's case is the strongest sustained-skill case in audited competition trading the publication has evaluated since Andrea Unger's pre-2012 four-time WCTC streak.
Top 5 Rankings 2025
| Rank | Trader | Specialty | Notable Achievement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skarp | Futures | 256% audited, WCTC Futures Division Champion |
| 2 | Chris Rokos | Global Macro / Rates | 21% net on $22B+ AUM, Rokos Capital |
| 3 | Thorsten Helbig | Forex | 52%+ audited, WCTC Forex Division Champion |
| 4 | Darren O'Neill | Multi-Asset | WCTC Forex top-5 across multiple divisions |
| 5 | Rob Citrone | Global Macro | 35%+ return, Discovery Capital Management |
Themes that defined the year
Tariff policy as macro driver. Trade policy moved from background to foreground. The traders who handled 2025 well were the ones who treated trade-policy headlines the way prior generations treated central-bank meetings — as primary inputs to risk-on/risk-off positioning rather than as one-off shocks.
Fed cuts without clarity. The cut cycle was real but the forward path was not communicated clearly. Yield curve steepeners worked early in the year and then reversed. Treasury volatility was elevated. Macro funds that ran rates positioning had to do so without the usual Fed-guidance scaffolding.
Equity dispersion. The Magnificent Seven narrative of 2023-2024 broadened. Stock-picking returned as a meaningful contributor for fundamental managers. Long-short funds had their best year in over a decade in dispersion-trading terms.
Crypto as integrated asset class. Bitcoin and major altcoins traded with increasing correlation to traditional macro factors (dollar weakness, real-rate moves) rather than as a separate speculative segment. Several multi-asset traders — including the 2023 Trading World Champion Darren O'Neill — ran integrated crypto exposure as part of the broader book.
Polymarket and prediction markets. Election-cycle and macro-event prediction markets reached institutional liquidity for the first time. Several traders began running formal positions across Polymarket as a complement to traditional macro positioning.
Looking ahead to 2026
The 2026 candidate identification cycle began in October 2025. The macro themes likely to dominate: continued tariff policy evolution, Fed forward guidance clarity (or its absence), AI-driven productivity capex, sovereign-debt sustainability, and a likely re-rating of growth versus value in equity. Editorial selections for 2026 will be published in late December 2026 / early January 2027.
The deepest pool of potential candidates entering 2026: Skarp (defending), Helbig, O'Neill (audit horizon now multi-year), Citrone, Griffin, Hohn, Rokos, plus emerging WCTC-format competitors who are showing sustained multi-year audit-grade results for the first time.